债务-通缩,还是债务-通胀?

Debt-Deflation?Or Debt-Inflation?

关于“债务-通缩”的经典理论,如欧文费雪的“债务-通缩”理论,伯南克的金融加速器理论和辜朝明的资产负债表衰退理论,虽然对历史上数次经济危机或经济衰退的机制做出了理论解释,但对于中国目前发生的一段时间内“债务-通缩”和“债务-通胀”相继并存的现象难以做出解释。本文构建一个研究框架,将债务率变动分为长债务周期和短债务周期,分别在这两个维度下分析债务与通胀的关联。长债务周期视角下,诸多国际案例和理论都说明,债务高企引致通货紧缩的机理客观存在。短债务周期视角下,债务短期高企和物价上涨并存。基于以上发现,长期来看,由于中国的高债务状况短期内难以迅速改变,中国的债务-通缩风险依然不容小觑,通缩阴影的彻底摆脱取决于未来债务杠杆的去化程度,短期看债务增速放缓,未来刺激政策边际效应或递减。

Although classical theories upon "Debt-Deflation " such as Irving Fisher’s "Debt-Deflation " theory,Bernanke’s Financial Accelerator theory and Koo’s Balance Sheet Recession theory have theoretically explained several of economic crisis and economic recessions,it is difficult to use them to explain why the phenomena of "Debt Deflation"and "Debt-Deflation" successively coexisted in China.This paper constructs a new framework that divides the changes in debt ratios into long and short debt cycles and analyzes the linkage between debt and inflation rate.From the long-term debt cycle perspective,international cases and theories show that the mechanism of high debt causing deflation objectively exists.From the short-term debt cycle perspective,short-term high debt and inflation coexist.Based on the above findings,in long run,China’s debt-deflation risk should not be underestimated as China’s high-debt situation is difficult to change rapidly.The complete shaking-off deflation risk depends on the extent of deleveraging.In short run,the pace of debt accumulation slows down and the marginal effects of future stimulus policies will probably diminish.