A股市场波动对房地产市场的影响研究

Research on the Impact of A-share Market Fluctuation on Real Estate Market

房地产市场一直是人们关心的焦点。以2015年股灾为分界点,将研究周期分为两个阶段进行对比分析,通过使用Garch、Copula、CVAR模型,实证分析出A股市场波动性及其所集聚的风险对房地产市场产生风险溢出效应,从而分析A股市场波动与房地产市场有一定的正相关性。

The status of the real estate market has always been the focus of attention. In general, the real estate market is mainly affected by population, land, and financial factors, however, short-term financial factors ( stock market volatility in a narrow sense) are precisely the talks of people after a meal. Taking the 2015 stock market disaster as the demarcation point, the research cycle is divided into two stages for comparative analysis. Through the use of Garch, Copula and COVAR models, the volatility of the A-share market and the risk of its accumulation are used to generate risk spillover effects on the real estate market, Thus the analysis of A-share market volatility and real estate market has A certain positive correlation.