金融周期、经济周期与资本流动

Financial Cycle,Business Cycle and Capital Flows

数次金融危机爆发促使经济学家更多地从金融周期角度审视当前全球经济形势。本文基于Borio(2014)提出的金融周期概念,系统测算了中国金融周期,并比较分析了金融周期与经济周期、资本流动之间的内在联系与区别。结果表明:第一,当前我国大概率处在金融周期收缩和经济周期下行的初步阶段,资本流动也达到了新周期的相对高点,极有可能向下扭转。第二,与经济周期、资本流动相比,我国金融周期具有持续时间更长、波动幅度更大的特征。第三,金融周期对经济周期具有不可忽略的重要影响,与资本流动也存在顺周期机制。第四,金融周期、经济周期与资本流动之间的相互影响机制存在明显的动态时变特征,并且有些传导机制在金融危机前后发生了结构性突变。

The economists pay more attention to the global economic situation from a financial cycle perspective because of the financial crisis. Based on the concept of financial cycle proposed by Borio (2014), this paper theoretically explained the mechanism of financial cycle, systematically calculated China's financial cycle, and analyzed the internal relations between financial cycle, business cycle and capital flows. Firstly, China was at the stage of both financial cycle and business cycle downturn, and capital flows also had reached the peak period of the new cycle, which was likely to turn downward. Compared with the period before the financial crisis, the cooperation of financial cycle had been significantly improved between China and the United States. Secondly, compared with the business cycle and capital flows, China's financial cycle had the characteristics of longer duration and greater volatility. Thirdly, the financial cycle had a significant impact on the business cycle, and the capital flows also had a pro-cyclical mechanism. Finally, the interaction mechanisms between the financial cycle, business cycle and capital flows had obvious dynamic time-varying characteristics, and some transmission mechanisms had the structural changes after the financial crisis.