央行支付系统资金流量与宏观经济的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Study on the Dynamic Relationship between the Flow of Funds in CNAPS and Macro Economy Capital——An Empirical Analysis Based on the VAR Model

本文以新疆2005-2018年季度央行支付系统资金流量与新疆地区GDP数据为研究对象,通过建立动态向量自回归模型(VAR)进行实证研究,发现央行支付系统资金流量与新疆地区GDP之间存在较为明显的正相关性,支付系统资金流量对地区GDP影响具有迟滞叠加性,利用央行支付系统资金流量数据建立的经济指标模型可以为地区经济发展趋势提供前瞻性预测。因此合理布局、科学发展支付系统,进一步提升支付系统的利用率对促进地区经济发展尤为重要。

This paper studies the flow of funds in Xinjiang's CNAPS and the GDP data of Xinjiang from 2005 to 2018. Through empirical research based on the VAR model, we found that there is a clear positive correlation between the flow of funds in Xinjiang's CNAPS and the GDP data of Xinjiangf, and the delayed superposition of the impact of the flow of funds on regional GDP. The economic index model based on the data of funds in Xinjiang's CNAPS can provide a forward-looking forecast for the regional economic development trend. Therefore, rational distribution, scientific development of CNAPS, and further improving the utilization rate of CNAPS are particularly important to promote regional economic development.