商业航天领域军民科技资源融合行为的演化博弈分析

Evolutionary Game Analysis on Military-Civilian Scientific and Technological Resources Integration Behavior in Commercial Spaceflight

随着国家军民融合战略的深入实施,军民科技资源融合对我国商业航天产业发展具有重要意义。基于演化博弈理论构建军民企业科技资源融合行为选择决策模型,通过复制动态方程对策略选择进行稳定性分析,并运用MATLAB7.0软件进行模拟仿真。研究结果表明:军民企业积极进行科技资源融合所产生的合作收益影响融合质量,不理想的合作收益易诱发机会主义行为、不利于融合;合作收益的分配合理与否影响融合行为的演化方向,且按劳分配最有利于高质量融合;军民企业消极融合所受到惩罚力度也是影响融合的重要因素,较大的违约成本能有效抑制机会主义行为的出现。最后,从协同价值创造、利益分配机制完善、约束机制制定方面提出助推我国商业航天军民科技资源有效融合的建议。

With the further implementation of military-civilian integration strategy, the integration of militarycivilian science and technology resources is of great significance to promote the development of China’s commercial space industry. In this paper, based on the evolutionary game theory, the decision model of science and technology resource fusion behavior between military enterprises and civil enterprises is constructed, and the stability analysis of strategy selection is carried out by replicating the dynamic equation. On this basis, the simulation is carried out by using Matlab7.0 software. The results show that the cooperative income produced by the active integration of science and technology resources in military and civil enterprises affects the quality of fusion, and the unsatisfactory cooperative income is easy to induce opportunistic behavior and is not conducive to integration;whether the cooperative income distribution is reasonable or not affects the evolution direction of fusion behavior, and the distribution according to work is most conducive to high quality integration;the size of the punishment for the negative integration of the military and military enterprises is also an important factor that affects the civil-military integration, and the large default cost can effectively prevent the occurrence of the opportunistic behavior. At last, the paper puts forward suggestions to promote the effective integration of the commercial space and military science and technology resources in China from the aspects of the creation of the cooperative value, the improvement of the benefit distribution mechanism, and the development of the restriction mechanism.