我国旅游地生命周期的阶段划分与节点判定——基于国内和入境游客数据的定量分析

The Stage Division and Node Determination of Tourism Area Life Cycle in China: Based on Quantitative Analysis of Domestic and Inbound Tourist Data

改革开放40年来,我国旅游业取得了长足发展。文章利用1994-2017年国内游客数据和1978-2017年入境游客数据,通过Logistic模型对我国全国尺度和地区尺度的旅游地生命周期进行定量划分,并判定节点出现的具体时间。结果表明:对国内旅游,全国尺度的旅游地生命周期时间节点为2011年、2022年和2033年,目前正处在发展阶段;地区尺度上,东部、中部和西部地区的旅游地生命周期时间节点存在细微差异,但各地区的国内旅游目前都处在旅游地生命周期的发展阶段。对入境旅游,全国尺度的旅游地生命周期时间节点为1990年、1998年和2006年,目前已经进入停滞阶段;地区尺度上,旅游地生命周期的时间节点差异相对较大,但东部、中部和西部地区的入境旅游目前都处在旅游地生命周期的巩固阶段。本研究不仅补充和检验了旅游地生命周期理论,也为我国旅游业的发展和管理提供了一定的启示。

In the past 40 years of reform and opening-up,the tourism industry in China has made considerable progress.And it is of great practical significance to review and study the development process and life cycle of China’s domestic tourism and inbound tourism.More importantly,the tourism-area life cycle(TALC) proposed by Richard W.Butler(1980) has become one of the most controversial theories in tourism academics.The TALC model includes stages of exploration,involvement,development, consolidation,stagnation,rejuvenation or decline.However,this model has not yet solved the problem of quantitative division of tourism development stages.Chengming Zhang and Han Zhang(2017)discussed the issue of quantitatively dividing the development stage of tourism and put forward a solution.They found the Logistic model could fit the TALC model very well and calculated the three time-nodes of the TALC model by utilizing the Logistic model.The three time-nodes are i.e.((a- 1.317)/r,K/4.732),(a/r,K/2),((a+1.317)/r,K/1.268),respectively.And a,r and K are the parameters to be estimated. Therefore,this article attempts to apply their the finding to calculate the time-nodes of China’s domestic tourism and inbound tourism at the national scale and regional scale.And this article also summarizes the time range of each stage.Based on the data of domestic tourists from 1994 to 2017,and the data of inbound tourists from 1978 to 2017,this article quantitatively classifies the tourism area life cycle of China at the national and regional scales.By utilizing the Logistic model,this article determines the specific time-nodes when they appear.And all calculations can be implemented on the software of SPSS 22. 0:Analysis-Regression-Curve Estimation-Logistic Model.Also,the present article qualitatively describes the development characteristics of each stage after quantitative division.The results show that,for domestic tourism,the time-nodes of the tourism area life cycle at the national scale are 2011,2022 and 2033.That means China’s domestic tourism is currently in the development stage.At the regional scale,there are slight differences among the time nodes of the tourism area life cycle in the eastern,central and western regions.But domestic tourism in all regions is currently in the development stage.As to inbound tourism,the time-nodes of the tourism area life cycle at the national scale are 1990,1998,and 2006,respectively.It means China’s inbound tourism has already entered a stagnation stage.At the regional scale,the time-nodes of the tourism area life cycle are relatively different.And the inbound tourism in the eastern,central and western regions are all in the consolidation stage these years.This present article not only complements and tests the theory of tourism area life cycle but also provides several managerial implications for the tourism industry development in China.What’s more,the present article also discusses the carrying capacity of the model of the tourism area life cycle,which may be an exciting research direction in the future.