新个人税收政策、家庭教育支出与商业养老保险参保意愿

New Individual Tax Policy, Family Education Expenditure and the Willingness to Participate in Commercial Pension Insurance

个人税收递延型商业养老保险开始试点,随之新个人所得税法将家庭教育支出列为附加扣除项,两项税收政策产生的经济效应将直接影响税收优惠政策的进一步完善和个人决策的制定。为明确新税收政策将产生的经济效应,以及家庭教育支出与参加商业养老保险意愿间的关系,文章考虑长寿风险以及教育对于人力资本积累的影响,建立具有生存不确定性的世代交叠模型,模拟了不同税收优惠政策、长寿风险下对资本产出、个人福利、储蓄等经济变量的影响,并分析了商业养老保险递延优惠办法与家庭教育支出、购买商业养老保险意愿间的关系。结果显示,若进一步加大对商业养老保险的税收优惠力度,会抑制家庭对于孩子教育的投入,同时参加商业养老保险意愿的提高会明显挤占家庭对孩子的教育支出。商业养老保险缴费率每提高1个百分点,家庭对孩子教育支出约下降1.501%。随着预期寿命的延长,为实现一生效用最大化,相比消费和储蓄,家庭更倾向于缩减对孩子的教育支出。

The pilot program for personal tax deferred commercial pension insurance has been implemented,and the new personal income tax law lists the household education expenditure as an additional deduction.The economic effects of these two tax policies will directly affect the further improvement of the preferential tax policy and personal decisions.In order to clarify the economic effects of the new tax policies,as well as the relationship between family education expenditure and the willingness to participate in commercial pension insurance,this paper established a generational overlap model with survival uncertainty considering the impact of longevity risk and the impact of education on human capital accumulation.This paper also simulated the impact of different tax incentives and longevity risk on economic variables such as capital output,personal welfare,and deposit.This paper analyzed the relationship between commercial pension insurance deferred preferential measures and family education expenditure and the willingness to purchase commercial pension insurance.The results show that if the tax incentives for commercial endowment insurance are further increased,the family's expenditure on children's education will be restrained,and the increase in the willingness of commercial pension insurance will obviously crowd out the education expenditure.For every one percentage increase in the rate of payment for commercial pension insurance,family's education expenditure will descend by 1.501%.As life expectancy increases,to maximize the effectiveness of the initiative,families are more likely to reduce the education expenditure.