劳动力价格对粮食生产的影响及区域差异

The Impact of Rural Labor Price Fluctuation on Grain Production and Its Regional Differences

利用2001—2017年省级面板数据,实证考察农村劳动力价格变化对粮食生产的影响及其区域差异。研究发现:农村劳动力价格上涨显著负向影响粮食播种面积及其比例,对粮食生产造成不利影响;但在机械化相对容易的平原地区,农村劳动力价格上涨对粮食生产的不利影响会被削弱;分区域研究结果显示,农村劳动力价格上涨导致中国东北、中部及西部地区粮食播种面积减小,但对东部地区粮食生产没有显著影响。在中国农村劳动力价格不断上涨的过程中,应重视农村劳动力价格上涨对不同区域的影响,采取针对性的措施稳定粮食供应,保障粮食安全。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2017,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of rural labor price fluctuation on grain production and its regional differences.The results show that the rural labor price has a significant negative impact on the grain planting areas and proportion,which has an adverse impact on grain production;in the plain,which is relatively easy to mechanize,the adverse effects of rising rural labor prices on grain production will be weakened.The results of the sub-regional study show that the increase in rural labor prices lead to a reduction in the grain sown areas in the northeast,central and western regions of China,but don’t have significant impact on grain production in the eastern region.Therefore,in the process of rising labor prices in rural China,we should also pay attention to the impact of rural labor price increases on different regions,and take targeted measures to stabilize grain supply and ensure food security.