我国粮食生产现状及面临的主要风险

Current Situation and Main Risks of Grain Production in China

采用“平均单产”和“产量变异系数”两个指标对中国粮食作物生产风险区域以省为单位进行划分,并通过对粮食生产近70年所面临风险的回顾,归纳出我国粮食生产所面临自然灾害的三个显著性特征:一是我国粮食生产面临的主要自然灾害是旱灾,并表现出明显的季节性、随机性、区域性、连片性特点;二是我国粮食自然灾害的变动趋势日益减弱;三是我国粮食自然灾害的波动性与变异程度日益减小。通过更加细化的数据分析,对我国粮食安全风险的区域化识别以及粮食政策的“因地制宜”提供理论依据和数据参考。

This paper tries to use the two indexes of"average per unit area yield"and"yield variation coefficient"to divide the risk regions of grain crop production in China into provinces And through describing the risks faced by grain production in the past 70 years,three remarkable characteristics of the natural disasters faced by grain production in China are summed up:First,the main natural disaster faced by grain production in China is drought,it shows obvious characteristics of being seasonal,random,regional and connective.Secondly,the changing trend of grain natural disasters is weakening.Thirdly,the degree of fluctuation and variation of grain natural disasters is decreasing.The paper expects to provide theoretical basis and data support for the regional identification of food security risk and the policy of"adjusting measures to local conditions".