基于贝叶斯网络的战时装备维修保障效能评估

Effectiveness Evaluation of Wartime Equipment Maintenance Support Based on Bayesian Network

从战时装备维修保障效能定义入手,深入剖析装备维修保障效能和装备维修保障能力的区别,以贝叶斯网络理论为基础,结合装备维修领域专家经验知识,建立以装备指挥效能、供应保障效能、装备维修效能等为主要评估指标的战时装备维修保障效能评估模型。依托Netica软件实现战时装备维修保障效能评估贝叶斯网络构建,采用梯度下降法进行网络参数学习,并结合实际案例证明模型的可行性。

Starting with the definition of wartime equipment maintenance support effectiveness,deeply analyses the difference between equipment maintenance support effectiveness and equipment maintenance support capability.Based on Bayesian network theory and experts experience knowledge in the field of equipment maintenance,an evaluation model of wartime equipment maintenance and support effectiveness is established,which takes equipment command efficiency, equipment maintenance efficiency,and supply efficiency as main evaluation indicators.Based on Netica software,the Bayesian network for evaluating the effectiveness of wartime equipment maintenance support is constructed.The gradient descent method is used to learn network parameters.Finally,the feasibility of the model is proved by a practical case.