面向县(市)的地震应急处置辅助决策系统研究

Research on emergency response assistant decision-making system of earthquake for county(city)

为了解决当前县(市)防震减灾工作部门开展地震应急处置工作时,所依据地震应急预案缺乏针对性、可操作性的问题。考虑不同县(市)自然地理、社会经济等环境的不同,提炼影响县(市)地震应急处置的主要因素,构建不同烈度下基于多因素的地震应急处置模型;在此基础上设计,并以国家可持续发展实验区四川省丹棱县为例,研发面向县(市)的地震应急处置辅助决策系统;通过在丹棱县境内假想设定6.5级地震对系统进行测试,结果表明:地震发生后,系统能按烈度分阶段快速产出具有区域特征且操作性较强的地震应急处置方案,可为县(市)地震应急处置的科学决策等提供有效的辅助决策建议。

In order to solve the problems that the current earthquake emergency plans are lacking in pertinence and operability,which are the main basis for the county(city)earthquake prevention and disaster reduction departments to carry out the emergency response of earthquake,considering the differences in natural geography,social economy and other environments of different counties(cities),the main factors affecting the county(city)emergency response of earthquake were extracted,and an earthquake emergency response model based on multiple factors under different earthquake intensities was constructed.On this basis,an emergency response assistant decision-making system of earthquake for the county(city)was designed and developed by taking the Danling County in Sichuan Province as an example,which was the national sustainable development experimental zone,and the system was tested by hypothetically setting a magnitude-6.5 earthquake in Danling County.The results showed that after the earthquake,the system could quickly produce the emergency response plan of earthquake with regional characteristics and strong operability by stages according to the earthquake intensity,which can provide the effective assistant decision-making suggestions for the scientific decision-making of earthquake emergency response in the county(city).