基于Fuzzy-ISM的重大工程项目社会稳定风险关系模型

Social Stability Risk Relationship Model of Major Engineering Projects Based on Fuzzy-ISM

为准确分析重大工程项目社会稳定风险发生过程中风险因素间的相互影响,本文基于Fuzzy-ISM提出一种分析风险相互关系的方法。识别出重大工程项目社会稳定风险的6类28个因素,运用三角模糊数表达风险间关系,构建风险关系递阶模型,通过MICMAC计算每个风险的综合驱动力和综合依赖力,在风险聚类的基础上针对各类风险提出治理优先度及治理措施。结果表明,居民丧失土地和政府监管不力对其他风险因素影响最大,治安恶化等风险因素更易受到影响。研究结果有助于重大工程项目管理者在社会稳定风险评估过程中准确把握风险间相互影响关系,尽早识别关键风险并进行风险预警和治理,同时也为政府维护社会稳定提供借鉴和参考。

In order to accurately analyze the interaction between risk factors in the process of social stability risk of major engineering projects,this paper proposes a method to analyze the relationship between risks based on Fuzzy-ISM.Identifying 6 categories of 28 factors of social stability risk of major engineering projects,using triangular fuzzy numbers to express the relationship between risks,constructing a risk relationship hierarchical model,calculating the comprehensive driving force and comprehensive dependence of each risk through MICMAC,governance priorities and governance measures are proposed for various types of risks based on risk clustering.The results show that residents’loss of land and poor government supervision have the greatest impact on other risk factors,and risk factors such as deterioration of public security are more susceptible.The research results will help major project managers to accurately grasp the relationship between risks in the process of social stability risk assessment,identify key risks and conduct risk warning and governance as early as possible,and provide reference for the government to maintain social stability.