基于DEA的建筑安全效率评价及曲线拟合预测

Construction Safety Efficiency Evaluation and Curve Fitting Prediction Based on DEA Method

在建筑业中,建筑安全问题逐渐成为大家关注的热点。实践证明,建筑安全的影响因子是由以建筑安全管理水平为主的多种因素组成。该项目结合DEA方法来评价建筑工程安全管理效率,建立以安全员人数、建筑业企业从业人员数量和建设安全技术投入占建设投资百分比为输入指标,以建筑安全事故发生总数、建筑安全事故死亡人数和安全损失占建设投资百分比为输出指标的评价模型。运用软件DEAP2.1对案例进行分析计算得到技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率,根据结果分析河北省建筑安全管理整体情况。运用曲线拟合的方法进行预测模拟,结合模拟结果,对河北省日后建筑安全管理提出合理建议。

In the construction industry,building safety issues have gradually become a hot spot for everyone.Practice has proved that the impact factor of building safety is composed of various factors including the level of building safety management.The safety management efficiency of construction engineering was evaluated by the means of DEA method,and the safety management evalution model was established,including the number of safety personnel,the number of employees in the construction industry,and the construction safety technology investment as the input investment percentage,the total number of construction safety accidents,the number of deaths from construction safety accidents,and the safety loss accounts for the construction investment percentage as the evaluation model of the output indicator.The software DEAP2.1 was used to calculate the technical efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency.According to the results,the overall situation of construction safety management in Hebei Province was analyzed.The curve fitting method was used to predict the simulation,and combined with the simulation results,reasonable suggestions for future building safety management in Hebei Province were proposed.