沈阳环境空气臭氧浓度及累积速率时序曲线模拟研究

Simulation of Environmental Air Ozone Concentration and Cumulative Rate Time Series Curve in Shenyang

为了解环境空气臭氧累积规律,利用2017年沈阳市环境空气臭氧浓度数据,统计分析臭氧累积速率,并利用回归方法拟合并优化臭氧浓度及其累积速率的时间序列模型,同时结合气温、风力、臭氧前体物等时序变化情况分析臭氧浓度的影响因素。研究发现:沈阳市臭氧月均浓度年变化、日均浓度年变化以及小时浓度日变化时序曲线均呈现单峰形态;年变化中,6月的臭氧浓度最大,4月臭氧累积速率达到最大值;日变化中,14:00臭氧浓度达到最大值,09:00-11:00臭氧累积速率最大,19:00-20:00臭氧迅速消减。温度、风速同臭氧浓度之间均有较好的正相关性。臭氧前体物二氧化氮、挥发性有机物与臭氧浓度之间均呈明显的负相关性。

In order to understand the accumulation law of ambient air ozone,the ambient air ozone concentration data of Shenyang in 2017 was used to statistically analyze the ozone accumulation rate,and the time series model of ozone concentration and its accumulation rate was fitted and optimized by using regression methods. At the same time,the ozone influencing factors were analyzed combined with temperature,wind,ozone precursors and other time series changes. The study found that the time-series curve of the annual change of monthly and daily average concentration,and the daily change of hourly average concentration of ozone in Shenyang,all showed a single peak shape;in the annual change,the ozone concentration in June was the largest,and the ozone accumulation rate reached the maximum in April;In the daily change,the ozone concentration reached the maximum at14 o’clock,the ozone accumulation rate was the highest at 9-11 am,and the ozone rapidly decreased at 19-20 pm. Both temperature and wind speed had a good positive correlation with ozone concentration. Both nitrogen dioxide and volatile organic compounds( VOCs) in the ozone precursor showed a significant negative correlation with ozone concentration.