春江水暖鸭先知——分析师能否读懂国有部门采购?

Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet:Can Analysts See Through the Procurement of State-owned Departments?

政府采购是财政支出的重要组成部分,具有宏观调控作用,为中小企业和不发达地区企业带来"造血式"的扶持作用。本文首次研究了国有部门采购订单对分析师预测的影响,发现分析师能够识别国有部门采购订单的信息含量,对于获得越多国有部门采购订单的企业,分析师给予的投资评级越高,分析师预测越准确、分歧度越低,并研究了中央层级、稳定性采购订单和企业所有权的提升作用;之后,进一步围绕分析师的识别能力和国有部门采购的效果进行了研究。本文的发现对政府采购的推行具有重要现实意义,对投资者解读上市公司获取国有部门采购订单的信息含量具有启示作用。

Government procurement is an important part of fiscal expenditure,and it has a macro-control role,which brings "hematopoietic" support to small and medium-sized enterprises and enterprises in underdeveloped areas.This paper firstly studies the impact of state-owned purchase orders on analyst forecasts.It is found that analysts can see through the information content of state-owned purchase orders.The more state-owned purchase orders a company receives, the higher the investment recommendation rating,the more accurate the forecast,and the lower the degree of divergence.This paper studies the promotion of central level,purchase orders’ stability and corporate property.The paper further studies the analyst’s ability to identify and the effectiveness of state-owned sector procurement.The findings of this paper have important practical significance for the implementation of government procurement,and have an enlightening effect on investors’ interpretation of the information content of listed companies’ purchase orders from state-owned departments.