新型城镇化、户籍制度改革与农民工市民化研究

New Urbanization, Household Registration System Reform and the Peasant Workers’ Citizenization

新型城镇化战略的提出以及促进农业转移人口市民化等政策的出台,为农民工提供了向现代城市居民全面转移的机遇,是实施区域协调发展战略的有力支撑。城镇化发展促进农村人口走出农村地域限制,发挥其生产创造潜力,为我国经济社会发展、产业转型升級提供重要的劳动力要素投入,伴随而来的是农村人口如何融入城镇生活、生产,即“市民化”问题。以制度性因素为切入点,构建户籍制度改革对农民工市民化影响的逻辑框架,并基于2011-2017年中国省级层面的经验数据,先运用固定效应回归模型考察多重制度性因素对农民工市民化的影响效应,再运用断点回归模型着重分析户籍制度因素对农民工市民化的影响效应。研究表明:户籍制度改革对农民工市民化程度具有显著的正效应,随着户籍约束的减弱,农民工向城市居民转变的步伐明显加快。同时,由于受到地区差异与财政支出状况等因素的调节作用,户籍制度改革正效应的大小有所变化,但结论并未产生实质性的改变。因此,应该适度、合理地进行户籍制度改革,最大限度发挥政策红利,加快农业转移人口市民化,进而有效推进新型城镇化建设。

The introduction of a new urbanization strategy and series of policies to promote the citizenization of rural migrant labor have provided the migrant workers with a good opportunity to fulfill their demand to transfer to modem urban residents, which strongly enhancing the implementation of regional coordinated development strategies. The development of urbanization promotes the citizenization of rural migrant, exert production efficiency, which giving an important support for the rapid development as well as industrial transformation and upgrading of China’s economy. But, the concerns that low degree of citizenization of rural migrant is raising apparently. Taking institutional factors as the initial concerns, this paper constructs the logical framework of the effect of household registration system reform on the citizenization of rural migrant labor based on the empirical data of provincial level from 2011 to 2017. First, it uses the fixed effect regression model to examine multiple institutional factors over degree of citizenization of rural migrant labor. Then it uses the regression discontinuity model to analyze the impact of household registration system on the degree of citizenization of rural migrant labor. The result show that the reform of household registration system has a significant positive effect on the degree of citizenization of rural migrant labor. With the reduction of household registration restrictions, the pace of transformation of citizenization of rural migrant labor to urban has accelerated significantly. Meanwhile ,due to the adjustment of regional differences and fiscal expenditures, the positive effect of the household registration system reform has changed slighdy, but not substantially or inversely. Therefore, we suggest that it is important to enhance the reform of the household registration system in proper and reasonable ways, maximize the policy dividend, reinforce the citizenization of the agricultural population, and effectively promote the degree of investment in urbanization.