中国工业部门电力消费因素分解——基于修正的LMDI分解法

Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in China:Based on Optimized LMDI Method

受统计数据缺失、统计标准变更等方面因素影响,2008年以后基于工业分行业增加值数据对工业部门电力消费进行逐年分解的研究较为匮乏。本文对传统对数均值迪氏分解模型进行修正,进一步纳入了电气化水平因素,对2003—2016年工业部门电力消费影响因素进行实证检验。研究表明,工业增长、电气化水平提升和产业结构调整分别是工业部门电力消费增长的第一、第二和第三拉动力,而能源强度的降低则大幅减少了电力消费的增量水平。未来我国工业部门的产业结构将进一步往技术密集型产业调整,产业结构变化对工业部门电力消费增长的拉动作用也将“由正转负”。

Due to the lack of statistical data, changes in statistical standards and other factors, there has been a lack of research on industrial electricity consumption decomposition in China based on the data of industrial added value after 2008.This paper conducts a decomposition analysis based on economy and energy data over the period 2003~2016 after adjusting the conventional LMDI model and including the factor of ‘electrification level’. Research results show that the growth of ‘industry output’, the increase of ‘electrification level’ and adjustment of ‘industry structure’ are respectively the first, second and third greatest influencing factors for the electricity consumption growth. Nevertheless, the factor of ‘energy intensity’ negatively affects the electricity consumption increase. Since it is expected that Chinese industry will gradually shift to be technology-intensive oriented, the ‘industry structure’ factor is highly likely to negatively affect the electricity consumption increase in the future.