长期停滞还是金融周期——中国宏观经济形势分析与展望

Secular Stagnation or Financial Cycle:China’s Macroeconomic Outlook

中国经济和全球经济面临的问题相似。“长期停滞说”和“金融周期说”既相互竞争,也相互补充,从不同角度提出了解决问题的方案。从结构性总需求不足的视角看,零利率下限要求财政政策充分承担责任,甚至可以通过债务货币化。从金融周期的视角看,决策者要特别警惕信贷扩张和资产价格上涨,以避免掉入债务陷阱。从我国各部门的具体情况看,既有长期停滞因素抑制总需求,也有金融周期影响的逐步扩大。短期看,由于全球经济面临巨大的不确定性,我国宏观经济政策应该以静制动,保持定力。在坚持金融去杠杆的大方针下,适时适度推出措施稳增长。同时,要有意识预留政策空间以应对未来可能发生的剧烈变化。

China's economy and the global economy are facing a similar predicament. The secular stagnation hypothesis and the financial cycle hypothesis compete against and complement each other and offer solutions from different perspectives. From the perspective of a structural insufficiency of aggregate demand, the zero lower bound on interest rates requires fiscal policy to fully assume responsibility, even at the cost of debt monetization. From the perspective of financial cycle, policymakers need to be particularly wary of credit expansion and rising asset prices to avoid falling into a debt trap, where low interest rates lead to even lower interest rates. Examining from the specific situations of various sectors in China, there are not only secular stagnation factors suppressing aggregate demand, but also the gradual expansion of the impact of financial cycle. In the short term, as the global economy faces huge uncertainties, China's macroeconomic policies should be stable and stay focused. Under the main principle of financial deleveraging, measures should be introduced in a timely and appropriate manner to ensure steady growth. At the same time, space should be consciously reserved for policies to cope with the drastic changes that may occur in the future.