产业政策有效性研究评述

A Review of Research on the Effectiveness of Industrial Policy

“二战”后东亚部分国家或地区凭借对产业政策的运用实现了经济腾飞,但其他运用产业政策的国家却鲜有成功,产业政策的有效性问题成为学术界研究的重要课题,然而争论大于共识。本文按照历史演进的顺序梳理了关于产业政策有效性的文献,归纳和评述了相关的理论观点和经验证据,讨论了已有文献的不足。本文认为,未来应把研究重点从“产业政策的有效性”转移到“产业政策的有效性边界”,不仅要研究产业政策是否有效,更要研究产业政策在什么条件下有效;在研究方法上,应引入不完全契约理论,将产业政策视为政府与企业签订的不完全契约,讨论契约不完全对产业政策有效性的影响,为相关研究奠定更坚实的微观基础。

After World War II, some countries in East Asia achieved economic growth through the use of industrial policies. However, few other countries have succeeded in implementing similar industrial policies. The effectiveness of industrial policy has become an important topic in academic research, but there are more disagreements than consensus. This paper organizes the literature on the effectiveness of industrial policy according to the historical timeline, summarizes and reviews the relevant theoretical view and empirical evidence, and discusses the shortcomings in the existing literature. We hold that the focus of research should be shifted from “the effectiveness of industrial policy” to “the boundary of the effectiveness of industrial policy”, not only studying whether industrial policy is effective, but also studying under what conditions it is effective. As for the research method, the incomplete contract theory should be introduced, and industrial policy should be regarded as an incomplete contract to discuss the impact of contractual incompleteness on its effectiveness, which would lay a more solid micro foundation for related research.