基于降雨指数法的水库实时洪水预报方案研究

Study on Real-time Flood Prediction Scheme of Reservoir Based on Rainfall Index Method

流域水量预报是防洪调度决策的主要依据,是防洪减灾工作中的一项重要的非工程措施,由于紫坪铺水库在受“5·12”大地震以及由地震引起的次生灾害影响,流域内产、汇流条件发生巨大改变,很多高端水文预报模型的计算结果和实际来水存在较大误差。为了更好地做好水库优化运行管理工作,利用基于降雨指数法的水库实时洪水预报方案快速可靠得对降水过后的来水做出预报方案就显得非常有必要。本文以对2013、2014和2017年汛期的来水预测为例,采用实时洪水预报方案,对降雨情势进行分析,根据强降雨过后的土壤墒情、蒸发等因素进行分析计算,辅以经验修正,为系统研究水量预报技术打基础。本研究可使洪水预报工作更加准确,对编制调度方案和运行计划有直接效果。

The prediction of basin water volume is the main basis to make flood control decision and also an important non-engineering measure in flood control and disaster reduction. Because Zipingpu Reservoir is affected by the "5·12" earthquake and the secondary disasters caused by the earthquake, the production and concentration conditions in the basin have changed greatly, and the calculated results from many high-end hydrological prediction models have large differences with the actual water flow. In order to better optimize the operation and management of the reservoir, it is necessary to use the reservoir real-time flood prediction scheme based on the rainfall index method to quickly and reliably predict the incoming water after the rainfall. This paper takes the flood prediction in 2013, 2014 and 2017 as an example, the real-time flood prediction scheme is adopted to analyze the rainfall situation, and make analysis and calculation according to the soil moisture, evaporation and other factors after heavy rainfall, and supplemented by experience correction, so as to lay a foundation for the systematic study of water prediction technology. This study can make the flood prediction work more accurate and has direct effect on the preparation of scheduling plan and operation plan.