典型电力安全突发事件演化及推演方法研究

Study on the Evolution and Deduction Methods of Typical Power Safety Emergencies

针对我国电力安全突发事件时有发生,电力工作人员应急处置能力亟待提高的现状,基于电力安全突发事件典型案例,归纳总结出事件的演化规律及各个阶段的影响因素。比较国内外在应急决策模式、演化机理、事件模型、推演方法等4个方面的主要研究路线,选择适用于电力安全突发事件的基于情景和概率的推演方法,设计了应急推演系统框架,提出了一种基于专家系统的自学习理念。

As the electric power safety emergency in China occurs from time to time,the electric power personnel emergency disposal ability needs to improve urgently.Based on the typical cases of power security emergencies,the evolution rules and influencing factors of each stage are summarized.This paper compares the main research routes of emergency decision-making mode,evolutionary mechanism,event modeling and inference method at home and abroad,selects situational and probabilistic inference methods suitable for power safety emergencies,designs the framework of emergency inference system,and proposes a self-learning concept based on expert system.