安徽省农村居民消费结构与经济增长关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证

The Relationship between Anhui Rural Residents’ ConsumptionStructure and Economic Growth——Based on VAR model

农村经济是中国特色社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分.随着“新农业、新农村、新农民”工程改革的不断推进,农村消费逐渐成为中国经济持续、健康发展不容小觑的推动力量.文章通过选取安徽省统计年鉴中所列农村居民1995年到2016年的八项消费数据与全省人均生产总值,按照消费目的细分为两类,作为解释变量,人均生产总值作为被解释变量测度经济增长项,建立VAR模型,进行格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数分析.实证结果表明,基础型消费对经济增长的影响不明显,发展型消费对刺激经济增长具有正向持续性;单纯增加农民收入而不引导其改变消费结构不利于经济持久健康发展.文章最后针对优化农村消费结构、促进地区经济发展提出了相关的对策建议.

The rural economy is an important part of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics.With the continuous promotion of the project reform of“new agriculture,new countryside and new peasants”,rural consumption has gradually become the driving force for the sustained and healthy development of China’s economy.This paper chooses eight consumption data of rural residents from 1995 to 2016 listed in Anhui Statistical Yearbook as explanatory variables and gross domestic product per capita as explanatory variables to measure economic growth,establishes a VAR model and carries out Granger causality test and impulse response function analysis.The empirical results show that the impact of basic consumption on economic growth is not obvious,and development consumption has a positive sustainability to stimulate economic growth.Simply increasing the income of farmers without guiding them to change their consumption structure is not conducive to the sustained and healthy development of the economy.Finally,the article puts forward relevant measures and suggestions for optimizing rural consumption structure and promoting regional economic development.