喇萨杏油田区块套损风险等级预测

Prediction of block casing loss risk level in Lasaxing Oilfield

针对喇萨杏油田套损日趋严重且难以预防和预测的问题,深入分析了影响套损的开发因素。通过分析影响套损的强度、幅度、累积和结构效应,列出了压力参数、注采参数等22项开发因素,并采用相关性分析方法,确定了9项主要开发因素;通过统计各项因素与套损级别概率分布的定量关系,确定了各项因素不同套损风险级别的界限及隶属度;采用模糊综合评判方法对区块套损风险等级进行预测,结果显示,最近2 a整体符合率达71.4%,其中高套损风险符合率达75.0%。运用该方法预测套损,实现了对区块套损及开发因素的双重预警,为遏制套损上升势头提供了有效手段。

Since casing damage is becoming more and more serious, and it is difficult to prevent and predict, the development factors influencing casing damage are analyzed. Through the intensity, amplitude, accumulation and structural effect of its influence on casing damage, 22 development factors including pressure system and injection-production parameters are designed. The correlation analysis is used to determine the main nine development factors affecting casing damage. Based on the quantitative relationship between the size of each factor and the probability distribution of casing loss level, the boundary and membership value of different casing loss risk levels of each factor is determined. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to predict the risk level of block casing loss. The overall coincidence rate reaches 71.4% in the last two years, and the coincidence rate of high casing loss risk is 75.0%. The dual warning of block casing loss and development factors is realized, which provides an effective means to curb the rising trend of casing damage.