银行竞争、影子银行与货币政策有效性分析

Banking Competition, Shadow Banking and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

本文对银行竞争环境下影子银行效用与信贷成本之间的内在逻辑做了理论推导,并分析了银行竞争与影子银行之间的关系及其阻碍货币政策传导的机制。文章选取国内上市商业银行2007-2017年数据,对银行竞争与影子银行的关系做了实证研究,得出结论:一是中国商业银行整体竞争度不断提升,银行竞争促使影子银行规模快速攀升,实际社会融资规模提高;二是银行竞争越强,信贷成本越低,影子银行效用越高,影子银行对社会融资规模的冲击具有正向影响,且影响具有周期性递减的特点;三是影子银行规模的提升对货币政策传导的有效性具有实质性影响,影子银行对货币政策的缓释作用可能引发流动性陷阱。最后,得出相关启示:通过引导差异化经营等方式降低银行业竞争成本与弱化同质化竞争,通过强监管政策抑制影子银行规模的大幅攀升,对存量影子银行规模采取稳中有降的指导政策,逐步降低影子银行对货币政策的缓释作用,保障货币政策产出函数的预期一致性,防范经济进入流动性陷阱。

This paper carries out a theoretical derivation on the internal logic between the credit cost and the utility of shadow banking.Simultaneously, it analyzes the transmission mechanism of impeding the transmission of monetary policy.Selecting the data of domestic listed commercial banks between 2007 and 2017, it conducts an empirical research on the relationship between bank competition and shadow banking.The conclusions are as following:(1)The overall competition of Chinese commercial banks are gradually increasing, the bank competition promotes the rapid rising of shadow banking and the actual social financing scale are increasing.(2)The credit cost is lower, the utility of the shadow banking is higher, the shadow banking has an positive influence on the impact of the social financing scale, which shows cyclical declining.(3)The scale promotion of shadow banking has a substantial impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission and the slow-release effect of shadow banking on the monetary policy can cause a liquidity trap.Finally, it puts forward some relevant enlightenments: reducing the competition cost of the banking and weaken the homogenization competition by taking the differentiated management method and others;suppressing the substantial increase of the scale of shadow banking through strictly supervision policies, adopting a stable decreasing guidance on the scale of the shadow banking to gradually reduce the slow-release impact of shadow banking on the monetary policy and ensure the expected consistency of output function of monetary policy, preventing the economy entering into the liquidity traps.