中国经济高质量发展面临的国际国内环境分析

The High-Quality Development of China’s economy in the Domestic and International Environment

本文深入分析了新时代“百年未有之大变局”我国面临的新机遇与新挑战。从国际环境看,新一轮科技革命和产业变革将重塑世界产业格局,新兴经济体和发展中国家群体性崛起将重塑全球发展格局,世界经济重心从大西洋向太平洋迁移将重塑全球竞争格局,“一超多强”的多极化格局将重塑全球经济治理体系,全球产业链、供应链、价值链深入发展将重塑国际经贸规则。但世界经济也将面临长期低速增长、重大挑战与日俱增、保护主义加剧、新兴大国与守成大国博弈加剧等挑战。从国内环境看,我国综合国力已居世界前列,国内消费市场日益强大,贸易投资大国地位日益稳固,金融开放稳步推进。但也面临综合实力与发达国家存在差距、技术创新能力不足、产能过剩和结构性矛盾突出、老龄化社会加速等挑战。

This article deeply analyzes the new opportunities and challenges facing China in the new era of “ the world is undergoing changes unseen in a century.” From the perspective of the international environment, a new generation of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation will reshape the world industrial structure. The emerging rise of emerging economies and developing countries will reshape the global development pattern. The shift of the world economic center from the Atlantic to the Pacific will reshape global competition. The pattern, the multi-polarization pattern of “one superpower and multi powers” will reshape the global economic governance system, and the in-depth development of the global industrial chain, supply chain and value chain will reshape international economic and trade rules. However, the world economy will also face challenges such as long-term low-speed growth, increasing major challenges, increasing protectionism, and intensifying the game between emerging powers and big countries. From the perspective of the domestic environment, China’s comprehensive national strength has been in the forefront of the world, the domestic consumer market is growing stronger, the status of a major trading and investment country is increasingly stable, and financial openness is steadily advancing. However, it also faces challenges such as the gap of comprehensive strength to developed countries, insufficient technological innovation capability, overcapacity and structural contradictions, and accelerated aging society.