基于NAR神经网络的湖北省社会消费品零售额预测

Prediction of retail sales of consumer goods in Hubei province based on NAR neural network

科学预测地区社会消费品零售额,对该省制定区域宏观经济调控政策,有效配置资源,改善供给质量,促进消费发展,确保国民经济长久发展具有重要意义.动态神经网络主要通过系统之前的信息预报系统未来的变化发展趋势,具有反馈和记忆功能,能进行长时段预测.运用动态神经网络对湖北省社会消费品零售额进行了预测,模型的拟合误差为0.96041%,预测得到了2020-2026年湖北省社会消费品零售额数值.

Scientific prediction of the retail sales of social consumer goods in Hubei Province is of great significance for formulating macroeconomic control policies,allocating resources effectively,improving supply quality,promoting consumption development and ensuring the long-term development of the national economy.The dynamic neural network mainly predicts the future development trend of the information system before the system.It has the function of feedback and memory,and can forecast for a long period of time.The dynamic neural network is used to forecast the retail sales of social consumer goods in Hubei Province.The fitting error of the model is 0.96041%.The retail sales of social consumer goods in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2026 are predicted.