中国钴资源进口安全分析

Analysis on import security of China’s cobalt resources

我国钴资源匮乏,钴的消费高度依赖海外资源,这导致我国钴资源供应面临较高风险。为了全面客观分析我国钴资源进口安全状况,首先对钴产品的进出口历史及现状进行了简要分析,然后建立了由对外依存度、进口集中度和进口国地缘政治风险组成的三维评价模型,对2001—2017年我国钴资源的进口安全进行了定量评价。结果显示2001—2007年,钴的进口来源国和进口份额相对分散;2008—2011年,钴的国内自给率较高,对外依存度处于历史最低水平;2012—2017年,三个指标均达到历史最高水平,表明进口安全状况不容乐观。最后建议通过优化进口地区及产品结构、建立进口安全监控机制、加强国内二次资源供应和国外勘查开发等方式,降低钴资源的海外供应风险。

China’s cobalt consumption is highly dependent on overseas resources due to resource scarcity, which leads to a high risk in the supply of cobalt for China. In order to analyze the import safety status of China’s cobalt resources comprehensively and objectively, a brief analysis of the import and export history and current status of cobalt products is carried out, and then a three-dimensional evaluation model consisting of import reliance, import concentration and geopolitical risks of importing countries is established, which is used to evaluate the import safety of China’s cobalt resources quantitatively from 2001 to 2017. The results show that from 2001 to 2007, the import sources of cobalt and the share of imports were relatively dispersed;from 2008 to 2011, the domestic self-sufficiency of cobalt was high, resulting in the lowest dependence on foreign resources in history;from 2012 to 2017, all three indicators reached high peaks, indicating that the import security situation was not optimistic. Finally, some suggestions to alleviate the supply risk of overseas resources are discussed, such as optimizing the structures of import sources and import products, establishing a monitoring mechanism of import safety, strengthening domestic secondary supply and foreign exploration and investment.