审视世界银行对中国的贷款:“毕业”还是“调整”?

Examining World Bank Lending to China: Graduation or Modulation?

根据世界银行《2018年资本协议》,一旦基本收入阈值——毕业讨论收入(GDI)——达到,借款国预计将逐步减少其投资组合。然而,该协定也肯定了继续向这些国家提供贷款的理由。一个理由与借款国境外的外部价值——全球公共产品有关;另一个因素与借款国的能力建设有关,这可能意味着重点放在贫困程度高、能力薄弱的次区域。在本文中,我们通过中国的视角来研究世界银行的毕业政策和贷款。中国目前超过了国际复兴开发银行在全国范围内贷款的GDI门槛,而国内收入不平等使得许多非沿海省份的人均GDI低于这一门槛。对世界银行在华贷款的汇总和省级分析显示,中国的贷款组合中,只有不到一半明显与政府绩效目标挂钩,而只有一小部分项目位于人均收入低于GDI门槛的省份。世界银行在中国的大量项目侧重于减缓气候变化和交通基础设施建设,而与能力建设相关的项目较少。总体而言,我们发现有证据表明,中国的借款与《2018年机构能力加强原则》和《全球政府间气候变化框架公约》相关的约定大体一致,尽管银行参与的重要领域似乎不属于这些原则的范围。

Under the World Bank’s 2018 capital agreement,borrowing countries are expected to gradually reduce their portfolios once a base income threshold-the Graduation Discussion Income(GDI)-is reached.However,the agreement also affirms the case for ongoing lending to these countries.One justification is tied to external value beyond the borrowing country’s borders(global public goods,or GPGs).Another is tied to building capacity within the borrowing country,which can mean a focus on sub-regions where poverty remains high and capacity weak.In this paper,we examine World Bank graduation policies and lending through the lens of China,which maintains a large portfolio of World Bank projects.China currently exceeds the GDI thresholds for IBRD borrowing at the national level,while income inequality within the country leaves many noncoastal provinces below the GDI per capita threshold.Aggregate and provincial-level analysis of World Bank lending in China shows that less than half of China’s portfolio comprises activities clearly linked to GPGs,while a slight majority of projects are based in provinces with per capita income below the GDI threshold.A substantial number of World Bank projects in China focus on climate change mitigation and transportation infrastructure construction,while a smaller number relate to capacity building.Overall,we find evidence that China’s borrowing is broadly consistent with the 2018 principles of institutional capacity strengthening and GPG-related engagement,although significant areas of bank engagement do not appear to fall within the parameters of these principles.