中国大豆进口依存度测度研究

Study on Measurement of China’s Soybean Import Dependence

以2001—2018年的年度数据为基础,运用Armington替代弹性法和传统方法测度我国对整体来源国和排名前三位的美国、巴西与阿根廷大豆进口依存度。结果显示:对整体来源国大豆进口依存度高且上升趋势明显;对美国和巴西大豆的进口依存度比较高,但对后者大豆进口依存度不及前者;对巴西大豆进口依存度趋势与对整体来源国大豆进口依存度趋势类似;对美国大豆进口依存度先波动性上升而后持续下降;对阿根廷大豆进口依存度表现为防范价格波动风险特征,呈现微弱波动性下降趋势。进口市场结构的寡占特点突出、进口价格远低于国内价格、持续快速增长的大豆消费需求和国产大豆产量增长缓慢所形成的扩张型供求缺口是造成我国大豆进口依存度持续偏高的根源。

Based on the annual data from 2001 to 2018, Armington elastic substitution method and traditional methods are used to measure China’s soybean import dependence on the overall source countries in general and the top three soure countries in particular America, Brazil and Argentina. The results show that the soybean import dependence on the overall source countries is high and its upward trend is obvious. The soybean import dependence on America and Brazil is relatively high, but on the latter soybean import dependence is less than the former. The tendency of soybean import dependence on Brazil is similar to that on the overall source countries. The dependence on America soybean import shares a fluctuating increase followed continuous by decline. The dependence of soybean import on Argentina shows a trend of weak fluctuation, which is characterized by hedging the risk of price fluctuation. The prominent oligopolistic characteristic of the import market structure , much lower import prices than domestic prices, the continuously fast increase of inelastic demand for soybeans, and the expansionary supply and demand gap caused by the slow growth of domestic soybean output are the root causes of China’s persistently high dependence of soybean import.