气候、纬度与赛场表现：平昌冬奥会奖牌榜分析

Climate, Latitude and Performance: Analysis of PyeongChang Winter Olympics Medal List

在回顾已有文献的基础上,利用2018年平昌冬季奥林匹克运动会获奖牌国家的气候、纬度和经济社会数据,建立基于零断尾泊松回归的计量分析模型,实证研究了气候和纬度变量对于一国冬奥会赛场表现的影响机制。结论:1)2月份平均气温每升高1℃,冬奥会奖牌数量下降0.02枚左右,理想的冬季运动场地室外平均温度应处于-3.69℃至4.22℃范围内;2)降雪量对于赛场表现具有先负后正的影响,理想的降雪量为31mm;3)一国首都所在纬度每升高1°,冬奥会奖牌数量增加0.39枚,且随着纬度提高呈现先增后减趋势,最佳纬度点为46.40°。

On the basis of reviewing the existing literature, using the climate, latitude and economic and social data of the winners of the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games, an econometric model based on zero-tailed Poisson regression is established to empirically study the climate and latitude variables. The impact mechanism of the performance of a country’s Winter Olympic Games.Through research, the main conclusions are as follows, firstly, for every 1 ℃ increases in February, the number of medals in the Winter Olympics would drop by about 0.02. The ideal outdoor temperature of the winter sports venue should be in the range of-3.99℃ to 4.22 ℃. Secondly, the amount of snowfall has a negative and positive impact on the performance of the stadium, the ideal snowfall is 31 mm. Thirdly, for 1° of the capital of a country, the number of medals in the Winter Olympics increases by 0.39, and the latitude increases first and then decreases, and the best latitude point is 46.40 °.