农村居民消费变化特征及收入影响研究

Research on the characteristics and income factors of rural residents’ consumption change

促进农村居民消费增加,拉动国内市场需求和实现区域均衡发展是学者们普遍关注的热门话题。本文从农村居民消费的收敛特征和消费变化的因素分解两个视角,研究了1997—2015年我国农村居民消费变化特征事实,并基于空间面板数据模型对农村居民消费的收入和收入结构因素进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:1997年以来农村居民消费区域差距扩大,2009年以来才出现σ收敛和β收敛特征;西部和东北地区省市的农村居民人均收入增幅过小,对消费变化贡献较低,影响了其消费的区域“蛙跳”赶超;农村居民收入不仅影响本地居民消费,而且对邻近省市存在较大正向影响,其外溢效应大于本地的直接效应。本文最后根据经验研究结果,从收入增加和收入结构调整视角给出了促进农村居民消费收敛的区域均衡发展政策建议。

The consumption changes’ characteristics of rural residents in China during the period from 1997 to 2015 and the factors of rural residents’ consume are studied in this paper. The study indicates that the regional gap in rural residents’ consumption has expanded since 1997, and that the characteristics of σ and β convergence appeared in 2009. The income of rural residents affects not only the consumption of local residents, but also has a large positive effect on neighboring provinces and cities. The spillover effect is greater than the direct effect on local residents.