我国居民杠杆率对居民消费影响的实证分析——基于ARDL-ECM模型

The Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Household Leverage Ratio on Household Consumption in China

当前,随着我国经济向内需型经济转轨,国内需求尤其是居民消费在国内经济增长中扮演的角色日益重要,所以如何保证居民消费可持续增长、以促进经济健康发展是我国经济当前面临的一个重要问题。然而,近年来随着居民生活水平提高、消费观念的改变,居民杠杆率也在不断攀升,国内学者也对杠杆率攀升对消费以及经济可持续增长表示了担忧,为准确把握居民杠杆率变化对居民的影响以及可能对国内经济产生的潜在影响,本文努力通过合适的计量经济学模型对两者关系进行验证,以求对保持居民消费、国内经济健康发展提出有价值建议。

At present, with the transition of China’s economy to a domestic demand-oriented economy, domestic demand, especially household consumption, plays an increasingly important role in the domestic economic growth. Therefore, how to ensure the sustainable growth of household consumption and promote the healthy development of economy is an important issue facing China’s economy at present. In recent years, however, as people living standard improving, the change of consumption idea, residents’ leverage ratios are also rising, the domestic scholars to leverage up to consumption and also expressed concern about the sustainable economic growth, to accurately grasp the influence of the residents to leverage change and the potential effect could have on the domestic economy, this article efforts through the appropriate econometric model to validate the relationship, in order to to keep residents’ consumption, the healthy development of the domestic economy put forward valuable Suggestions.