我国房地产金融宏观审慎管理有效性研究——基于河南省会城市郑州市的实证研究

Research on the Effectiveness of Macro-prudential Management of Real Estate Finance in China——An Empirical Study of Zhengzhou City, the Capital City of Henan Province

本文借鉴国内外关于房地产金融宏观审慎管理的实践经验,基于郑州市2008-2017年的房地产数据,运用VAR模型,对房地产金融宏观审慎管理对房价波动的调控效应进行研究。研究表明,宏观审慎政策工具中的贷款价值比和杠杆率对房价存在长期正向影响并且对房价波动的贡献率很高,即房地产宏观审慎政策对房价波动的调控是有效的。因此,可以通过调节贷款价值比和控制杠杆率,约束居民贷款能力,减少对房地产的投机行为,达到"房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的"的房价调控目的。

Based on the real estate data of Zhengzhou from 2008 to 2017, this paper uses VAR model to study the regulation effect of real estate financial macro-prudential management on house price fluctuation, drawing on the practical experience of real estate financial macro-prudential management at home and abroad. The results show that the loan-to-value ratio and leverage ratio in macro-prudential policy tools have a long-term positive impact on housing prices and have a high contribution rate to the fluctuation of housing prices. That is to say, the macro-prudential policy of real estate is effective in regulating the fluctuation of housing prices. Therefore, by adjusting the loan value ratio and controlling the leverage ratio, restraining residents’ loan ability and reducing speculation on real estate, we can achieve the goal of "housing is for living, not for speculation".