我国体育彩票销售额的空间异质性及影响因素分析

Analysis of Spatial Heterogeneity and Influencing Factors of Sports Lottery Sales in China

收集2013—2017年我国31个省份体育彩票销售额的面板数据和2017年各省份社会发展指标的相关数据,运用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA),对31个省份体育彩票销售额的空间异质性特征及影响因素进行研究。全局空间自相关分析结果表明,体育彩票销售额具有明显的空间聚集性,且呈显著的空间正相关性。经分析,发现31个省份体育彩票销售额不均衡,东部沿海省份的销售额高于西部省份,提出应重点关注西部地区的体育彩票事业发展。31个省份体育彩票销售呈现出以次冷区域为主,个别热点区域和次热区域相结合的特点,说明我国体育彩票销售的区域性寡占市场特征较明显,提出应加强省份间的沟通交流,促进各区域联动均衡发展。在影响因素方面,人均GDP、体育场地面积对体育彩票销售额具有显著性影响,其中人均GDP对南方的影响大于北方,体育场地面积对东北地区的影响大于西南地区,提出应进一步加大对体育场地建设的投入力度,以促进我国体育彩票事业的发展。

The panel data of sports lottery sales in 31 provinces of China from 2013 to 2017 and the related data of social development indicators in each province in 2017 are collected,and the spatial heterogeneity characteristics and influencing factors of sports lottery sales in 31 provinces are studied by exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA).The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis show that sports lottery sales have obvious spatial aggregation and significant positive spatial correlation.Through the analysis,it is found that the sales of sports lottery in 31 provinces are not balanced,and the sales in eastern coastal provinces are higher than those in western provinces.It is suggested that the development of sports lottery in western areas should be focused on.Sports lottery sales in 31 provinces show the characteristics of a combination of sub-cold areas,some hot areas and sub-hot areas.This shows that the regional oligopoly market characteristics of sports lottery sales in China are obvious.It is suggested that communication and exchanges among provinces should be strengthened to promote the balanced development of regional linkage.In terms of influencing factors,GDP per capita and stadium areas have a significant impact on sports lottery sales.Among them,GDP per capita has a greater impact on the south than on the north,and stadium areas have a greater impact on the northeast than on the southwest.It is proposed that the investment in sports venue construction should be further strengthened to promote the development of sports lottery in China.