青藏高原牧户草地转入行为的影响因素分析——基于495户牧民的调查

Analysis of Influencing Factors on Grassland Inflow Behavior of Herdsmen in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau——Based on a Survey of 495 Herdsmen

以玉树、那曲、阿坝、甘南4个地区共495个牧户调研数据为基础,运用Logit和Probit实证计量模型从户主个人特征、家庭社会经济特征、牧民草场畜牧业经营特征和其他因素等方面分析了青藏高原牧区草地转入行为的影响因素。结果表明:牧户家庭草地承包面积对草地转入行为有显著的负向影响,牲畜数量对草地转入行为有显著的正向影响;区域变量中,那曲地区牧户的草地转入行为显著低于其他3个地区,而甘南和阿坝牧户的草地转入行为显著高于另外两个地区。根据上述结果,对促进牧区草地的有序流转提出了建议。

Based on the survey data of 495 herdsmen in Yushu,Naqu,Aba and Gannan,this study analyzed the influencing factors of the grassland inflow behavior in pastoral areas by using Logit model and Probit model from four aspects,which included the characteristics of householders,family socioeconomic characteristics,herdsmen’s animal husbandry management characteristics and other factors.The results showed that the contracted areas of pastoral households had a significant negative impact on the inflow behavior of grassland,and the number of livestock had a significant positive impact on the inflow behavior of grassland.When it comes to the regional variables,the herdsmen’s grassland inflow behavior in Naqu region was profoundly lower than that in the other three regions,while the herdsmen’s grassland inflow behaviors in Gannan and Aba were much higher than that of the other two regions.According to the above conclusions,three suggestions were put forward to promote the orderly transfer of grassland in pastoral areas.