经典出行分布模型的不足与新理论探索

Deficiency of Classic Trip Distribution Models and Exploration of the New Theory

为解决因经典出行分布模型存在不足而导致预测所得OD矩阵的科学性有所欠缺、正确性有待商榷的问题,有必要探索研究新的出行分布理论、建立科学的出行分布预测模型。通过分析增长率模型与重力模型等经典出行分布预测方法及其他一些出行分布研究存在的不足,提出出行分布预测的本质是深入理解哪类群体采用哪些交通方式从哪些起点到哪些讫点的内在逻辑的理论观点。分析用地布局、出行者、交通方式等关键因素之间的关系,深入探讨关键因素与出行分布之间的内在关系。在此基础上,提出基于关键因素的出行分布新理论和构建出行分布模型的一般思路,并基于此理论初步建立新的出行分布预测概念模型。此外,还指出开展城市发展预测研究及基于此研究开展各类群体选择行为研究对出行分布预测模式的必要性。

Due to the deficiencies in the classic trip distribution models, the Origin Destination(OD) matrices obtained from these models lack scientificity and their accuracy is still open to question. To solve this issue, it is necessary to explore and develop a new trip distribution theory and establish a scientific and reasonable trip distribution model. This paper analyzes the deficiencies of several trip distribution studies and classic trip distribution models, such as the Growth Factor Model and the Gravity Model, and proposes that the essence of trip distribution forecasting is to understand deeply the inherent logic among travelers, travel modes, origins and destinations, which are related to travelers’ characteristics. The paper discusses the relationship among the key factors, including land use, travelers and travel modes, and explores the inherent relationship between these key factors and trip distribution. Based on the study above, the paper proposes a new trip distribution theory building on the key factors and a general idea for developing trip distribution forecasting models. Finally, the paper establishes a conceptual trip distribution model based on the new theory, and points out the necessity to promote the research on the forecasting of urban development and the travel behavior of different groups.