教育、风险与“名校”效应:理论模型与实证分析

Education,Risk and “Elite Schools” Effect: Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis

本文在教育投资既能提升个体竞争力(人力资本效应)又能增强个体生产力价值信息(信号效应)的框架下,研究个体在面临未来的就业形势、技术进步、金融动荡等风险时如何进行最优教育投资决策。通过有机融合人力资本理论与信号筛选理论,从理论上证明了教育投资是一种有效规避未来风险的手段,并且在“名校”学习的个体会更有动力加大教育投资、延长受教育时间。随后,本文基于2002及2013年“中国家庭收入调查”数据,通过分位数回归、倾向得分匹配等方法对理论结果进行了实证检验,并证实了个体可通过增加教育投资有效地覆盖未来由失业率升高造成的劳动力市场风险以及由技术进步带来的生产力贬值风险,而且投资“名校”教育的收益会比投资普通大学高出约18.2%。

This paper studies how the individual being confronted with the risks on employment, technological progress and financial turmoil, decides the optimal education investment, in the framework of individual s competitiveness (human capital effect) and individual productivity information value (signal effect) ameliorated by education investment. Through the combination of human capital theory and signal screeningtheory, the theoretical part of this paper proves that the education investment is an effective way to avoid future risks, and the individuals studying in “Elite Schools” will be more motivated to increase investment in education and extend the education time. Therewith, the theoretical results are verified by means of quantile regression, propensity score matching and other methods based on the data of “China Household Income Survey” in 2002 and 2013. It is confirmed that individuals can effectively cover future labor market risks caused by rising unemployment rate and productivity depreciation risk caused by technological progress by increasing investment in education, and the investment in “Elite Schools” education will be about 18.2 percent higher than that of investment in ordinary universities.