经济政策不确定性与家庭资产配置

Uncertainties in Economic Policies and Allocation of Family Assets

采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)项目2010~2016年微观家庭数据,研究经济政策不确定性对家庭资产配置行为的影响。实证结果表明,经济政策不确定性减少了家庭参与金融市场的概率,家庭出于预防性动机会显著降低风险资产在家庭金融资产中的比重。进一步研究发现,经济政策不确定性增加时,男性居民较女性居民、未婚家庭较已婚家庭、城镇家庭较农村家庭参与金融市场的可能性及金融参与深度呈现出更大程度的下降趋势。研究结论不仅为家庭资产配置行为需综合关注各方面因素有所启示,也为政府保持经济政策长期稳定性、金融机构要及时准确向公众提供经济政策的正确解读提供了参考。

Using the 2010-2016 micro-family data from the China Family Panel Studies( CFPS) project,this study looks into the impact of economic policy uncertainties on households’ asset allocation behavior. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainties reduce the probability of household participation in financial markets,and households significantly reduce the ratio of risk assets in their financial portfolio as a result of precautionary motives. Further research has found that when uncertainties in economic policies grow,male residents,singletons,and urban households show a steeper decline in the likelihood and depth of their participation in financial markets compared with females,married households,and rural households,respectively. The conclusions of this study not only reveal the necessity for a comprehensive consideration of the various factors in households’ asset allocation behavior but also provide a reference point for the government in maintaining the long-term stability of economic policies,as well as for financial institutions in providing the public with a correct interpretation of economic policies in a timely and accurate manner.