2000年我国钢材消费量的模糊预测

Steels Consume Fuzzy Forecast in 2000 Years of China

钢材消费量预测中具有较强的模糊性。利用模糊数学原理,分析了影响钢材消费的主要因素,依据专家调查信息确定了评判模型中的各类参数。通过三级模糊综合评判,得出预测结论。

There are much fuzziness in steels consume forecast, ie. forecasting object, external variable interrelated and various influence factors, etc, Fuzzy principle is suitable for steels consume forecast. Firstly this paper points to primary factors effecting steels consume in view of consuming law of steels. Secondly, it defines the parameter deat with in fuzzy judgment model. according to the information coming from expert investigation. As a result, by the three-level fuzzy comprehensive gudgment, it gives a conclusion that our steels consume will be 95-105 million ton in 2000 year.