中国可持续能源发展情景及其碳排放分析

Analysis on China s Sustainable Energy Development and Carbon Emission

中国目前已经制定了中长期的社会经济发展战略,“十五”规划中也提出了一些战略要点,如可持续发展,科技进步,西部开发战略,城市化和人才战略。如果中国要实现上述预期目标,能源部门应当有那些行动,政府和市场的作用如何?为此的环境代价如何?也确实值得从社会、经济、能源、环境可持续发展的角度,开展上述研究工作。本文简要介绍了研究的方法与思路,情景设计的基本考虑以及主要结论。文章最后还对影响中国能源发展之路的不确定因素进行了分析评价。

Chinese government has implemented the middle-long term social and economy development strategy, and furthermore, some strategic themes such as sustainable development, science and technology development, western development, urbanization and human resource development have been laid out in the 10th five-year-plan (FYP). Assuming that China will achieve the above-mentioned development target, what should be done within the energy sector? What's the role of government and the market? It is indeed worthy of carrying out such project in terms of the sustainable development of social, economy, energy, environment. The thesis addressed the methodologies, future energy development scenarios design consideration, main findings from this project and uncertainty analysis so as to discuss the potential sustainable energy road in future China.