基于中位秩的动态可靠性增长模型

The Dynamic Reliability Growth Model Based on the Middle Rank

给出了一种动态可靠性增长模型。首先利用统计中的中位秩法结合试验数据确定各个增长阶段的失效率 ,这一技术可以很好地解决小子样问题 ,并且由于利用了动态建模的思想 ,因而可以客观地反映系统的实际状态。其次 ,该模型继承了传统Duane模型简单、直观、易于进行参数估计的优点 ,同时又很好地处理了传统Duane模型所不适用的分阶段、多场景试验的情形 ,因而有很广阔的工程应用前景。

We propose a kind of dynamic reliability growth model. Firstly, by using the middle rank in statistical field and the data gathered in the practical tests, we can find the failure rate of different growth periods. And this technique can solve the small sample problems. At the same time, this technique embodies the dynamic modeling thoughts, so it can well describe the practical condition of the running system. Secondly, this model inherits the merits that is simple, direct, easy to value the references of traditional Duane model, on the other hand, it can be used in the multi period or multi environmental tests in which traditional Duane model can not be applied. Thus, this model can be widely used in engineering. Finally we give a simulating example in order to demonstrate how to use this model and test the correctness of the model.