摘要
利用时间序列分析方法——基于均值生成函数的正交化筛选建模方法,建立了北京地区年降雨量预测模型,预测了未来10年北京地区年降雨量及水资源总量的变化趋势。结果表明,采用这一方法对随机水文系列进行长期预测是有效的。
An analysis method of time series based on orthogonai screen modeling of mean generating function for long period forecast of hydrological series is used to produce annual precipitation,with which the variation tendency of total water resources can be derived.
关键词
降雨量
水资源
北京
预测
annual precipitation
total water resources
Beijing area
forecasting
time series
mean generation function
orthogonal screen
