基于全寿命周期的分布式发电并网用户侧经济性评估

User-Side Economic Evaluation with Distributed Generation on Life Cycle

当前,我国环境污染与资源紧缺问题不断加剧,随着分布式发电技术水平的不断提高,清洁能源分布式发电将是未来电力市场的发展方向之一,而影响用户侧分布式电源实施的重要因素为用户侧的经济性。为此,文章从分布式发电全寿命周期的角度给出用户侧经济性评估方法。首先,针对分布式发电并网的运行特点,对用户侧全寿命周期3个阶段的成本收益项进行全面梳理,提出各项指标的计算模型。其次,基于项目全寿命周期现金流计算利润净现值、投资回收期和内部收益率这3个指标值。最后,针对装机成本、燃料费用和售电收入这3个不确定性因素对项目净现值的影响进行敏感性分析,分析结果给出了在分布式电源并网的情况下,用户侧实现经济效益最大化应采取的措施。通过分析结果可以看出,对项目净现值影响最大的因素是年售电收入,其次是燃料费用,第三是装机成本,项目要想取得更大的收益,需要扩大其售电市场、提高发电效率,降低燃料费用。

With the intensifying environmental pollution and resource shortage,clean energy-based distributed generation becomes one of the most promising sector of future power industry.The economic performance of user side has great effect on the implementation of use-side distributed generation.The life cycle-based user-side economic evaluation method was presented from.The cost-benefit items in three life cycle stages were analyzed and the calculation model of each index was proposed with the operating characteristics of distributed grid-connected generation;three indicators were calculated based on the full life cycle cash flow i.e.the net present value of profits,investment recovery period and internal rate of return;the sensitivity analysis of three uncertain factors,the installation cost,fuel cost and electricity sale incomes,was made to evaluate the influence on NPV.The measures were proposed for the maximum economic benefits of user side in the case of distribution grid-connection generation.The result shows that the electricity sale income contributes the most,followed by the fuel cost and installation cost.It is essential for more benefits to expand electricity market,improve power generation efficiency and reduce fuel costs are necessary.