朝核问题与特朗普政府的对朝政策

North Korea Nuclear Issue and Trump Administration’s Policy toward North Korea

朝鲜不放弃核武化的立场和越来越频繁的导弹发射活动,使美朝、美韩关系长期陷入紧张对峙与有限对话的循环状态。现在,特朗普政府重新定义了美国对朝政策,其核心可概括为'最强有力的施压与干预'。然而,朝鲜核武化的核心目的在于维护其政权安全,任何单边施压与干预政策恐怕都难以奏效,反而有可能触发战争引信。根据以往处理朝核危机的经验来看,如果各方在给予朝鲜安全承诺的基础上,以双边、多边会谈的形式,确定弃核的时间表和核查程序,则有可能取得预期成果。为此,特朗普政府必须确立清晰的政策目标。或许美国需要严肃考虑中国政府提出的'双暂停'和'双轨并进'的思路。

North Korea’s refusal to abandon nuclearization and its frequently increasing missile launches have made the U.S. and North Korea’s relations,as well as the U.S. and South Korea’s relations,fall into a long term circulation status, which is the confrontation of tension and limited dialogue between each other. Currently, the Trump administration has redefined its policy toward North Korea, which can be stated to be key point as the "maximum pressure and engagement." Nevertheless, the essence of North Korea’s nuclearization is to maintain its regime; thus, with unilateral pressure and correlated policy, it is difficult to achieve the desired result, but rather, it can trigger the detonator that might lead to war. According to the empirical approach in terms of dealing North Korea’s denuclearization, if each nation promises to give security approval to North Korea, in the form of bilateral or multilateral dialogue, and also presents a fixed timetable for North Korea’s denuclearization and inspection process, it might achieve the expected result,that is, North Korea’s denuclearization. Therefore, it is necessary for the Trump administration to establish its North Korean policy objective firmly. Maybe, it is time that the U.S. seriously considers the so-called "dual-track approach" and "suspension-for-suspension," which was proposed by the Chinese government.