基于降雨径流关系曲线插值法的山洪临界雨量计算

Method of flash flood rainfall indicator determination based on rainfall-runoff charts

临界雨量是开展山洪灾害预警业务,制定综合防治规划方案的关键性指标。在分析国内外山洪灾害临界雨量计算方法的基础上,结合全国山洪灾害调查评价工作,研究提出了利用降雨径流关系曲线插值法计算山洪临界雨量,并应用于湖北省张家河小流域。该方法在考虑前期影响雨量的情况下,根据一定时段内降雨与所形成洪水洪峰流量相关关系曲线,将预警水位对应的流量在曲线上内插,得到相应的临界雨量值。方法兼顾了基于数据驱动的统计归纳法和基于灾害发生物理机制的水文水力学法的要求和优点,具有较强的适用性和通用性。

The rainfall threshold is an important indicator used to establish early warning system and making prevention plans for flash floods disasters. Based on a review of commonly used methods for estimating rainfall threshold in flash flood forecasting,the interpolation of correlation curve between rainfall and runoff method is proposed in this study, combining with investigation and evaluation of flash flood. The method is applied to calculate the rainfall threshold of the Zhangjiahe watershed in Hubei Province. First of all,the method considers the influence of antecedent rainfall to gain rainfall thresholds by interpolating the correlation curve using the corresponding flow of the warning water level. The correlation chart is proposed,according to a certain period of rainfall and the formed flood peak flow. Taking advantages of the data-driven statistical and inductive methods and the physical process- based hydrologic hydraulic methods,the calculation method in this paper is practical and desirable for prevention flash flood disaster.