撒哈拉以南非洲的“领头羊”:南非抑或尼日利亚?

Who Is the“Bellwether”in Africa:South Africa or Nigeria?

根据西非大国尼日利亚2014年4月发布的国民收入统计报告,尼日利亚跃升为非洲第一大经济体,由此引发了国际社会对目前的非洲'领头羊'南非的地位的关注。文章首先通过回顾尼日利亚国民收入统计调整的背景、原因、特点对该报告的可信度进行了考察,认为其报告具有较强的可信度。接着,又在'地区领导国家'框架的基础上,对尼日利亚成为非洲第一大经济体的事实对南非的非洲'领头羊'地位的影响进行了分析,认为短期内尼日利亚尚难以取代南非的地位,但中长期内则极有可能超越南非,成为撒哈拉以南非洲的'领头羊'。

According to the statistics released in April,2014,Nigeria has risen to the largest economy in Africa,which has aroused the contention about whois the leader of African economy:South Africa or Nigeria.This paper first reviews the background,cause and characteristics of income statistics in Nigeria and evaluates the credibility of the report,concluding that this report is reliable.Next,this paper examines the impacts of the rise of Nigeria upon the status of South Africa on the basis of the theory of“regional power”,arguing that it is unlikely for Nigeria to overtake South Africa in the short run,although Nigeria would become the bellwether of Sub-Saharan Africa.