玛河流域耕地景观动态变化及驱动机制分析

Research on Farmland Landscape Dynamic Change and Its Driving Mechanism in Manas River Basin

玛河流域是近几十年土地利用变化剧烈的灌区之一,同时也是干旱生态敏感脆弱区。从景观生态学的角度结合RS和GIS技术探讨了玛河流域耕地宏观动态变化过程与景观格局的关系,并采用主成分回归分析法对耕地变化的驱动力因子进行了通径分析、相关系数矩阵分析、偏相关分析。结果表明:近20 a玛河流域耕地景观的斑块密度和斑块数量总趋势在降低,斑块面积占景观面积的比例有上升的趋势,其破碎度逐渐降低。耕地斑块形状复杂且形状复杂度还在增加。1990-2010年,玛河流域整体景观格局处于平衡状态,且从空间和面积的角度,耕地景观都位于研究区域的核心地位,其中部耕地面积呈现迅速的扩张状态且呈现阶段化特征,耕地、林地和草地,三者之间存在转入、转出现象较为显著。多元分析显示农林牧渔总产值对耕地变化的驱动作用最大,GDP次之,固定资产投资总额较小。耕地景观面积总体是在增加,但其利用效率低。随着玛纳斯河流域的经济发展,耕地景观破碎化及形状分离度现象可能较为严重,造成耕地集约节约低下。

Manas River Basin is one of the irrigation area of land use drastic change and is also arideco-fragile area inrecent decades.The article studies the relationship between macrodynamic change process of farmland and landscape patternby the view of landscape ecology,and bases on Principal Component Regression Analysis to the driving force factors of cultivated land change carrying out Path Analysis,Correlation Coefficient Matrix Analysis and Partial Correlation Analysis.Results show density and patchnumbers of farmland landscape have gradually decreased general trend past 20 years patch.However,plaque area percentage of the total landscape area shows upward trend and fragmentation decreases gradually.Patch shape of farmland is complex and it`s level is increasing.Total landscape pattern showed balance situation from 1990 to 2010 in Manas River Basin.Farm landlandscape is all located in the center of study region from the view of space and area.Farmland,forest land and grasslandshow apparently input and output phenomenon.Multivariate analysis shows the total output value of agriculture forestry animal husbandry and fishery is the mos timportant factor to cultivated landchange,and GDP and gross fixed asset formation havesmaller driving work.Farmland landscape area overall is on the increase,but its efficiency islow.With the economic development of Manas River Basin,the level of farmland fragmentation andshape separating degree of landscape fragmentation phenomenon maybe more severe,and cause low level of economica land intensive use of farmland.