降雨径流模型思想及研究进展

Review on Progress of Rainfall Runoff Models and a Prosepect on Future Research Directions

根据国内外研究学者文献调研结果,从发展历程上将降雨径流模型思想划分为推理法、单位水文线法、概念性降雨径流模型和基于物理机制的径流模拟等4类,并逐一介绍了其提出背景、建模目的及主要内容和特点。根据国内外最新研究成果,在其他学者提出的分布式水文模型的深入探讨、降水径流污染模型与GIS/RS技术的结合、模型模拟结果的不确定性研究等降雨径流模型发展方向的基础上,指出了基于数据驱动的模型的发展、对水文机理和水流路径的追踪研究、模型专家的多方合作及模型集成研究等也是降雨径流模型发展的重要方向。

According to the domestic and foreign researches and studies,we can categorize rainfall runoff models to four thoughts as rational method、unit hydrolograph、conceptualisation of rainfall-runoff relationship and Physics-based runoff modeling.In this paper,each method was introduced on their backgrounds、purpose as well as meanings.The paper also summerized the prospcets on future research directions mentioned by some researchers,distributed hydrological models 、models combined with GIS/RS tools、uncertainty analysis,for example.However,some other intersting studies,such as models driven by data and statistics、tracing researches on hydrological mechanism and path of runoff、cooperation researches on multi-party experts and integrated models and so on and so much,derserve attention too,which may also be the important directions of rainfall runoff models reseaches.