四川省工业发展环境经济特征的耦合研究

A Coupling Research on the Environmental Economic Characteristics of Industry in Sichuan Province

为研究四川省工业发展的环境经济特征,选取2006-2015年工业废水、工业SO_2排放量和人均GDP数据,建立各环境指标与人均GDP的环境库茨涅兹曲线(EKC),再将曲线分别与Tapio脱钩模型耦合。结果表明:(1)2006-2015年,四川省工业废水的EKC曲线为"N"型,未达到倒U曲线的拐点;(2)工业SO_2的EKC曲线持续下降,表现为倒U曲线的右半段;(3)2006-2014年,工业废水与经济完全脱钩,但2014年后反弹,其与经济不再脱钩。在未来若四川省经济和环境保持现有发展态势,工业废水与经济将不能脱钩;(4)工业SO_2与经济在10年间一直呈完全脱钩。在未来若四川省经济持续增加,工业SO_2排放量持续下降,则其与经济能继续保持完全脱钩。

In order to find the characteristics of environmental economy of industrial development in Sichuan Province,this paper selected the data of industrial wastewater emissions,industrial SO2 emissions and GDP per capita of Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2015,using SPSS to establish the EKC of each environmental indicator and GDP per capita,then coupled with Tapio decoupling model respectively.The results showed that:(1)From 2006 to 2015,the EKC of industrial wastewater of Sichuan Province is'N'type and has not yet reached the inflection point of the inverted U curve;(2)The EKC of industrial SO2 was continuously declining,showing the right half of the inverted U curve;(3)From 2006 to 2014,industrial wastewater completely decoupled from the economy,but after 2014,the discharge of industrial waste water had rebounded and it was no longer decoupled from the economy.In the future,if economy and environment of Sichuan maintain the existing developmental trends,the industrial wastewater will not decouple from the economy;(4)Industrial SO2 emissions had been completely decoupled from the economy during the past decade.In the future,if the economy of Sichuan Province continues to increase and industrial SO2 emissions keep the current trend,the industrial SO2 will be completely decoupled from the economy.