闽台能源安全评价

The Comparison and Analysis of Energy Security between Fujian and Taiwan Province

采用1980-2014年的能源经济数据,以能源供应安全性、能源公平性以及能源消费安全性为基础,构建福建省和台湾省的能源安全评价模型,利用主成分分析法对两地的能源安全演进过程及驱动因子进行了对比分析,结果表明:台湾省和福建省的能源安全总体形势都在不断优化,均呈现明显的阶段性特征,且福建省的变化形势更为复杂;从1980年到2014年,台湾省能源安全指数变化总体特点可概括为前期快,后期缓;而福建省能源安全指数变化波动性较大;福建省能源安全的整体水平要低于台湾省,但近几年福建省要高于台湾省,在1980年到1988年的9 a中,福建省能源安全指数始终高于台湾省;1989年至1996年期间,两地的能源安全态势大致相当;此后至2011年,福建省的能源安全指数都是低于台湾省的,2011年以后福建省能源安全指数超过台湾;总体来说,台湾省的优化速度要快于福建省,但从2004年以来,福建省的安全形势明显提升.

Adopts the energy economic data from 1980 to 2014 and based on the security of energy supply,the fairness of energy consumption to structure the evaluation on model of Fujian and Taiwan's energy security. It uses principal component analysis to compare and analyze the evolution process of energy of energy security and driving factors of the two areas. The results are as follows:the overall situation of energy security of the two provinces is being improved steadily,which presents an obvious feature of periodicity. And Fujian's variation is more complex. From 1980 to 2014,Taiwan's features of energy security index can be concluded as "fast in the former"and "slow in the later". While there is large fluctuation of Fujian's. The whole level of energy security of Fujian is under Taiwan's,but it has exceeded Taiwan in recent years. During the 9 years from 1980 to 1988,the energy security data of Fujian is beyond Taiwan 's. From 1989 to 1996,they are almost on a same level. From then to 2011,Fujian's is below Taiwan's,and after 2011,Fujian's energy security data has exceeded Taiwan's. In general,Taiwan's speed on promotion is faster than Fujian's. But from 2004,Fujian's security situation has been obviously improved.